THE CONCRETE ROUNDABOUT (TCR)

Here is the Expected Goals timeline graphic for the Fleetwood v MK Dons League 1 game on 24 Feb 2018, by Ben Mayhew @ Experimental 361

Closely matched for most of the game, and both sides scoring from outside the box with shots that average teams would probably expect to save.
Aneke's 35min shot & Ugbo's 53min shot either side of halftime were statistically our most promising chances, but after Aneke went off we created almost nothing for the remaining 20 mins, as seems to happen whenever Aneke's not on the pitch, while Fleetwood kept Nicholls busy making some decent saves at the other end until the final whistle.
Overall we probably didn't deserve anything more than a draw as the Expected Goals suggest, and didn't create enough good chances or take those that we did create in order to deserve the win either.


Explanation:
There are two numbers next to each club’s name.
The first number is how many goals each club actually scored, if any.
The second number (in brackets) is the number of goals that an average team would have expected to score from their shots - the "Expected Goals" from all the chances created by that team added together over the course of the match.
The lines on the graphic track how each team's Expected Goals tally, cumulatively increased over the first & second halves of the match.
Every jump upwards in a line, is a shot by that club, with bigger jumps upwards corresponding to more promising chances.
Blobs appear on the Expected Goals line, wherever goals were actually scored by that club during the game, if any.

The Expected Goals timeline graphics can provide a better sense of how each game played out, who deserved to win, who was lucky/unlucky etc. than edited highlights and/or the basic shots, shots on target, and possession stats do.

Full explanations & the other timeline graphics for this round of League 1 fixtures can be found at Experimental 361:
https://experimental361.com/2018/02/25/ ... -feb-2018/

An explanation of Expected Goals (xG) is also available from BBC Sport - well worth a read if you are still unclear on Expected Goals, what they are, and what they can signify:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

So basically Fleetwood deserved to win and we deserved a draw but in reality we both drew.

So as Fleetwood only drew when they should have won, and therefore we should have lost, does that mean we really won by drawing?

Exactly that, and incontrovertibly so.
P.S - You are Dan Micciche, aicmfp...

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.

aicmfp??? As In Complete Master of Fictitious Pony?

Alternatively: Inexperienced Currently at Managing Full-grown Players?
or
Absolutely Inexcusable Crap - Massive Functional Problem?

Different people might perceive things differently...

_________________
APL Hall of Fame Champion 2023/24
APL Champion 2017/18
134 grounds - 78/92

PW: 'Every year we’re in League 1 is a year too long...'
It's Pete's train set and you should all feel honoured to be granted the privilege of paying to watch him play with it.